Survey data were analysed to examine patterns in incidence and severity of phoma canker. Six 'phoma risk regions' were identified in which survey data indicated that the indicence of Phoma canker followed a similar pattern.

In 2001, A model for predicting incidence of phoma canker in July for each 'risk region' was derived through analysis of the data, using various possible explanatory variables. The parameters found to give the most accurate regional prediction of disease incidence (% plant affected) were region, incidence of phoma canker the previous season, total rainfall in September/October, total rainfall in February/March and temperature in February. The model was subsequently validated by comparing the predicted incidence with the actual phoma incidence recorded in the survey. To see the predictions for the coming July, see Phoma regional forecast

Survey data were analysed to examine patterns in incidence and severity of light leaf spot. Six England &Wales 'light leaf spot regions' were identified in which survey data indicated that the indicence of disease followed a similar pattern.

A model was derived from analyses of survey data, to forecast incidence (% plants affected) for each region in the autumn and the severity (% crops with > 25% plants affected) the following spring. The forecast is based upon the amount of pod disease the previous summer, summer temperature, the number of days during the winter with above average rainfall for the region.

The model was subsequently validated by comparing the predicted incidence with the actual light leaf spot incidence recorded. A Scottish forecast has also been produced by running the forecast for the North of England pod disease data with Scottish meteorological data. The regional light leaf spot forecast is hosted by Rothamsted Research. To see the predictions for the coming spring, see Light leaf spot regional forecast