Early Warning for Septoria tritici in treated crops
Weather during two parts of the season is critical to the development of Septoria tritici
epidemics. The biggest effect is from rainfall during stem extension period (April-May). In
addition, however, seasonal disease pressure is partly determined by weather during winter, especially
temperature. This is because the inoculum generated during the winter phase, initiates disease progress
on the new leaves in spring and contributes to infection throughout the stem extension phase.
Prediction:leaf 2 severity
click on region to view predicted risk
click on region to view predicted risk
A predictive model for Septoria tritici that accounts for these two parts of the epidemic has been
developed. This model predicts increased risk due to warm winters (late January to early March) and wet
summers (late April to early June).
The model has been run to generate a risk map based on winter weather and weather from 1 April to 29 May.
The spatial boundaries for the predictions are based on historical disease pressures (1991-2004). Disease levels within an area are more similar compared to any of the other areas. These constructed regions better reflect patterns of disease across England than arbitrary borders such as county boundaries.
A final point to consider is that the weather recording stations are only representative of limited areas around their locations. Rainfall in particular can vary in amount across short distances, so fields not too far away may experience more or less than the recorded precipitation. CropMonitor is working to try to expand the available network of weather stations able to make observations useful for agricultural applications, but for the time being we are restricted in the number and placement of equipment.
Read further details of risk prediction scheme.
The model has been run to generate a risk map based on winter weather and weather from 1 April to 29 May.
The spatial boundaries for the predictions are based on historical disease pressures (1991-2004). Disease levels within an area are more similar compared to any of the other areas. These constructed regions better reflect patterns of disease across England than arbitrary borders such as county boundaries.
A final point to consider is that the weather recording stations are only representative of limited areas around their locations. Rainfall in particular can vary in amount across short distances, so fields not too far away may experience more or less than the recorded precipitation. CropMonitor is working to try to expand the available network of weather stations able to make observations useful for agricultural applications, but for the time being we are restricted in the number and placement of equipment.
Read further details of risk prediction scheme.
